A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
